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Shear-slipping Failure Probability of High Arch Dam


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Shear-slipping Failure Probability of High Arch Dam
CHEN Zai-tie12
1.Civil Engineering College,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;2.Basic Course Department,Shazhou Institute of Technology,Zhangjiagang 215600, China
arc dam failuremechan ism shear- slipp ing failure fa ilure probab ility safety eva luat ion risk analysis
Fault tree analysis is used to analyse the h igh arch dam risk. The analysis result show s that the shear-slipp ing collapse o f high arch dam is caused by the flood o f high w ater level and strong surg ing force resulted from upstream dam bursting and large-sca lemountain land-slide. Based on the mechanism of shear-slipping dam co llapse, the state function of h igh arch dam shear-slipp ing failure mode is estab lished, and the function invo lves four non-fu lly-independent random variab les, name ly, compressive stress, shearing stress, coefficient of friction and coefficient of cohesion, and is o f nonlinear characteristics. Bymeans of sta tistical inference as w ell as hypothesis testmethod, it is determ ined tha t the variables of compressive stress and shear ing stress are o fEx treme-va lue ID istribution and that the variab les of frictional coefficient and cohesion coefficient are o fLogarithm icNo rmalD istribution. B ased on the approach of turning som e o f the re levant ex treme-va lue-type and logarithm ic norma l d istribut ion variab les into independent and norma l random variables, the shear-slipp ing fa i-l ure probab ility of a h igh arch dam is w orked out to be o f the order ofmagnitude of 10- 5 by means o f second-ordermomentmethod.


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Last Update: 2007-04-30