|Table of Contents|

Model of Traffic Volume Forecasting Based on Fuzzy GMDH Network

《南京理工大学学报》(自然科学版)[ISSN:1005-9830/CN:32-1397/N]

Issue:
2010年01期
Page:
46-50
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Model of Traffic Volume Forecasting Based on Fuzzy GMDH Network
Author(s):
CHEN Hong12CHEN Sen-fa1
1.Institute of System Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;2.Institute of Mathematical Research,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China
Keywords:
group method of data handling network fuzziness traffic volumes forecasting
PACS:
U491.14
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In view of the undesirable forecasting results from the conventional group method of data handling(GMDH) network modeling that uses the least square method to identify coefficients,this paper introduces a fuzzy reasoning model into the GMDH network to take the place of partial descriptions of the traditional GMDH network,i.e.the integral binary quadratic polynomial forms.Based on the GMDH network,this paper proposes a model of traffic volume forecasting based on a fuzzy GMDH network.Simulation results show that the average relative error of the new model prediction is only 2.31%,and it is less than 3.35% which is the average relative error of prediction of the traditional GMDH network.The new model is proved effective.

References:

[ 1] 陈森发. 复杂系统建模理论与方法[M ]. 南京: 东 南大学出版社, 2005.
[ 2] 汪徐焱, 胡文艳. 基于自组织理论的自组织多项式 网络算法[ J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 1999, 19 ( 4): 51- 56.
[ 3] 刘光中, 颜科琦, 康银劳. 基于自组织理论的GMDH 神经网络模型及应用[ J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2001, 31( 4): 464- 469.
[ 4] Ohtan iT, Ich ihashiH, M iyosh iT, e t a.l Orthogona l and success ive pro jection m ethods fo r learn ing of neuro fu zzy GM DH [ J] . Inform a tion Sc iences, 1998, 110( 1 /2) : 5- 24.
[ 5] 乔俊飞, 王会东. 模糊神经网络的结构自组织算法及 应用[ J]. 控制理论与应用, 2008, 25( 4): 703- 707.
[ 6] 周敏, 李世玲, 张富堂. 数据组合处理方法在数据预 测中的应用[ J]. 计算机测量与控制, 2006, 14( 7): 939- 941.
[ 7] Ivakhnenko A G, Ivakhnenko G A. The rev iew o f prob lem s so lvab le by a lgor ithm s o f the group m ethod o f data hand ling [ J]. Pattern Recognition and Im age Analysis, 1995, 5( 4): 527- 535.
[ 8] 楼玉, 赵小梅, 刘国华. 具有改进反馈环的NF-GMDH 网络及其在混沌预测中的应用[ J]. 电路与系 统学报, 2004, 9( 5): 86- 89.
[ 9] 吴耿锋, 彭虎, 储阅春, 等. 具有混沌特征的GMDH 网络在降雨预测中的应用[ J]. 小型微型计算机系 统, 2000, 21( 2) : 135- 137.
[ 10] 黄玲, 钟家勇, 孔峰. 基于GMDH 方法的复杂时间序列 的数据预测[ J]. 计算机与信息技术, 2006( 10): 7- 9.

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2012-11-02