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Short-term wind speed forecast based on wavelet packet decomposition and peak-type Markov chain


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Short-term wind speed forecast based on wavelet packet decomposition and peak-type Markov chain
Feng KaiYing ZhanfengWu JunjiWan Meng
School of Energy and Power Engineering,NUST,Nanjing 210094,China
wavelet packet peak-type Markov chain short-term wind speed forecast
A short-term wind speed forecast method is proposed here based on the signal analysis feature of the wavelet packet and the unsteady data forecast feature of the peak-type Markov Chain.This method decomposes the history wind speed data into the wavelet packet component and statistics these components with the peak-type Markov chain for establishing the rising probability matrices and the falling probability matrix.According to above matrices,the predicted wavelet packet coefficients at next moment are calculated and the wind speed is forecasted after reconstructing the predicted wavelet packet coefficients.The comparison between the proposed method and other forecast methods shows that the proposed method has the higher forecast accuracy.


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Last Update: 2014-10-31