[1]陈在铁.高拱坝剪滑失效概率研究[J].南京理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,(02):224-228.
 CHEN Zai-tie.Shear-slipping Failure Probability of High Arch Dam[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2007,(02):224-228.
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高拱坝剪滑失效概率研究
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《南京理工大学学报》(自然科学版)[ISSN:1005-9830/CN:32-1397/N]

卷:
期数:
2007年02期
页码:
224-228
栏目:
出版日期:
2007-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Shear-slipping Failure Probability of High Arch Dam
作者:
陈在铁1 2
1. 河海大学土木工程学院, 江苏南京210098; 2. 沙洲工学院基础科学系, 江苏张家港215600
Author(s):
CHEN Zai-tie12
1.Civil Engineering College,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;2.Basic Course Department,Shazhou Institute of Technology,Zhangjiagang 215600, China
关键词:
拱坝 破坏机理 剪滑失效 失效概率 安全评价 风险分析
Keywords:
arc dam failuremechan ism shear- slipp ing failure fa ilure probab ility safety eva luat ion risk analysis
分类号:
TV642.4
摘要:
利用故障树分析法对高拱坝进行风险分析。研究表明,上游溃坝和大面积山体滑坡等产生的高水位、强冲力的洪水是造成高拱坝剪滑垮坝的原因。根据剪滑溃坝机理建立了高拱坝剪滑失效模式的状态函数,该状态函数包含压应力、切应力、摩擦系数以及粘结力系数等4个非完全独立的随机变量,且具有非线性特征。应用统计推理和假设检验方法分析得知,压应力与切应力随机变量呈极值Ⅰ型分布,摩擦系数与粘结力系数随机变量呈对数正态分布。在将部分相关的极值型与对数正态分布随机变量转换为独立、正态随机变量的基础上,利用二阶矩法计算得到某高拱坝的剪滑失效
Abstract:
Fault tree analysis is used to analyse the h igh arch dam risk. The analysis result show s that the shear-slipp ing collapse o f high arch dam is caused by the flood o f high w ater level and strong surg ing force resulted from upstream dam bursting and large-sca lemountain land-slide. Based on the mechanism of shear-slipping dam co llapse, the state function of h igh arch dam shear-slipp ing failure mode is estab lished, and the function invo lves four non-fu lly-independent random variab les, name ly, compressive stress, shearing stress, coefficient of friction and coefficient of cohesion, and is o f nonlinear characteristics. Bymeans of sta tistical inference as w ell as hypothesis testmethod, it is determ ined tha t the variables of compressive stress and shear ing stress are o fEx treme-va lue ID istribution and that the variab les of frictional coefficient and cohesion coefficient are o fLogarithm icNo rmalD istribution. B ased on the approach of turning som e o f the re levant ex treme-va lue-type and logarithm ic norma l d istribut ion variab les into independent and norma l random variables, the shear-slipp ing fa i-l ure probab ility of a h igh arch dam is w orked out to be o f the order ofmagnitude of 10- 5 by means o f second-ordermomentmethod.

参考文献/References:

[ 1] 中国大坝委员会. 中国大坝统计情况及资料[ EB / OL] . www. ico ld-c igb. org. cn / / zt/dam s /chinesedam s. asp. 2005- 10- 06.
[ 2] Chen Zaitie. Ove rv iew on arch dam safe ty resea rch [ A] . Proceed ing s o f the 4th In ternational Con ference on Dam Eng ineer ing: New Developm ents in Dam Eng ineering [ C]. Ro tterdam: Ba lkem a A A, 2004. 255 - 261.
[ 3] Ren Q ingw en. Developm ent of theo ry and m e thods on h igh dam structural ana lys is [ A ]. Proceed ings of the 4th Interna tiona l Conference on Dam Eng ineering: New Deve lopm ents in Dam Eng inee ring [ C] . Rotte rdam: Ba lkem a A A, 2004. 63- 74.
[ 4] 陈在铁, 任青文. 高拱坝安全度评价研究[ J]. 南京理工大学学报, 2005, 29( 5): 623- 626.
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[ 6] 洪华生, 邓汉忠. 工程规划与设计中的概率概念 [M ]. 北京: 冶金工业出版社, 1991.
[ 7] 陈在铁. 高拱坝失效故障树模型与失效概率[ J]. 河海大学学报, 2006, 34( 6): 688- 692.
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相似文献/References:

[1]陈在铁.高拱坝安全分析中的不确定性因素研究[J].南京理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,(06):718.
 CHEN Za-i tie,REN Q ing-w en.Uncertainty Factors in High Arch Dam Safety Analysis[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2006,(02):718.
[2]陈在铁.高拱坝安全度评价研究[J].南京理工大学学报(自然科学版),2005,(05):123.
 CHEN Zai-tie~~.High Arch Dam Safety Evaluation[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2005,(02):123.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金重点项目( 50539030), 江苏省/ 青蓝工程0中青年学术带头人培养基金
作者简介: 陈在铁( 1967 - ), 男, 江苏盐城人, 副教授, 博士生, 主要研究方向: 结构安全, E-m ail: chenza itie@ yahoo. com. cn。
更新日期/Last Update: 2007-04-30