[1]卜全民,童 星.环境质量评价中污染物时间序列的R/S统计方法[J].南京理工大学学报(自然科学版),2013,37(04):647.
 Bu Quanmin,Tong Xing.R/S statistical method for time series of pollutants in environmental quality assessment[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2013,37(04):647.
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环境质量评价中污染物时间序列的R/S统计方法
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《南京理工大学学报》(自然科学版)[ISSN:1005-9830/CN:32-1397/N]

卷:
37卷
期数:
2013年04期
页码:
647
栏目:
出版日期:
2013-08-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
R/S statistical method for time series of pollutants in environmental quality assessment
作者:
卜全民12童 星12
1.南京大学 政府管理学院,江苏 南京 210093; 2.南京大学 社会风险与公共危机管理研究中心,江苏 南京 210093
Author(s):
Bu Quanmin12Tong Xing12
1.School of Government; 2.Center for Social Risk and Public Crisis Management, Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China
关键词:
环境质量评价 污染物浓度 时间序列 重标极差统计方法 Hurst指数
Keywords:
environmental quality assessment pollutant concentration time series rescaled range statistical analysis method Hurst index
分类号:
X820.2
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了获取科学、全面的环境质量评价结论,该文对污染物浓度值在时间序列上的随机波动性进行了研究。该文利用分形分析量化各污染物的时间序列浓度值,再利用Hurst的重标极差(简称R/S)统计方法,求取随机波动的污染物浓度规律性稳定值作为各污染物环境质量评价的浓度值,提出了3种不同的Hurst指数计算方法:(1)同一起点法;(2)跨步平均法;(3)错位平均法。并分别进行了对比研究,得到了3种方法的曲线图,从统计规律性知污染物浓度时间序列的R/S统计方法中的错位平均法规律性最好。研究表明:使用污染物时间序列的R/S统计方法宜采用错位平均法求取Hurst指数。
Abstract:
In order to obtain scientific and comprehensive environmental quality assessment conclusion,the time series stochastic volatility of pollutant density is studied here.The complexity of time series change can be quantified through fractal analysis,and the rescaled range statistical analysis method(R/S)is used to obtain the fixed value of pollutants concentration which is regarded as the value of pollutants in environmental quality assessment.Three methods are proposed for the calculation of Hurst index:(1)the same point method;(2)step average method;(3)dislocation average method.The statistical regularity of dislocation average method of R/S statistical method of pollutant concentration time sequence is the best regularity from the three kinds of methods of graph.A contrast research is finished.The research results show that the dislocation average R/S method is suitable for obtaining Hurst index.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2013-02-06 修回日期:2013-04-24
基金项目:江苏省科技支撑项目(BE2010738); 江苏省“333工程”项目; 江苏省“青蓝工程”项目; 江苏省高校优秀中青年教师境外研修计划项目
作者简介:卜全民(1976-),男,博士,副研究员,主要研究方向:风险分析、评价与管理,E-mail:qmbu@sina.com。
更新日期/Last Update: 2013-08-31