[1]朱震曙,薄煜明,吴盘龙,等.基于QPSO-RBFNN的短期电力负荷预测模型[J].南京理工大学学报(自然科学版),2016,40(01):97.
　Zhu Zhenshu,Bo Yuming,Wu Panlong,et al.Short-term power load forecasting model based on QPSO-RBFNN[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2016,40(01):97.
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基于QPSO-RBFNN的短期电力负荷预测模型
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《南京理工大学学报》（自然科学版）[ISSN:1005-9830/CN:32-1397/N]

卷:
40卷
期数:
2016年01期
页码:
97
栏目:
出版日期:
2016-02-29

文章信息/Info

Title:
Short-term power load forecasting model based on QPSO-RBFNN
作者:
朱震曙; 薄煜明; 吴盘龙; 赵高鹏; 朱建良
南京理工大学 自动化学院,江苏 南京 210094
Author(s):
Zhu Zhenshu; Bo Yuming; Wu Panlong; Zhao Gaopeng; Zhu Jianliang
School of Automation,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China
关键词:
量子行为粒子群优化;  电力负荷;  负荷预测;  径向基函数;  神经网络;  K-均值聚类;  权值;  均方根误差
Keywords:
quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization;  power load;  load forecasting;  radical basis function;  neural network;  K-means clustering;  weights;  root mean square error
分类号:
TM715
摘要:
为了提高短期电力负荷预测的精度,提出了一种量子行为粒子群优化(Quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization,QPSO)算法和径向基函数神经网络(Radical basis function neural network,RBFNN)相结合的电力负荷短期预测模型。通过K-均值聚类算法确定RBFNN的基函数中心,并用粒子群优化算法优化神经网络权值,在加快RBFNN收敛速度的同时提高预测精度。以实际负荷数据进行预测验证,预测负荷的均方根误差小于0.01,验证了模型的合理性和有效性。
Abstract:
In order to improve the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting,a forecasting model is proposed by combining quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization(QPSO)algorithm with radical basis function neural network(RBFNN).The basis function center of the RBFNN is obtained by the K-means clustering algorithm.The neural network weights are optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm.The convergence rate of the RBFNN is fastened while the forecasting accuracy is raised.The short-term power load forecasting is verified by real load data,the root mean square error of daily load forecasting is less than 0.01,and the rationality and validity of the model are demonstrated.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2015-04-24 修回日期:2015-08-05
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(61473153; 61203266); 江苏省产学研联合创新资金(BY2013004-04)
作者简介:朱震曙(1987-),男,博士生,主要研究方向:电力系统智能控制,E-mail:zhuzzs0411@126.com; 通讯作者:薄煜明(1965-),男,研究员,主要研究方向:导航制导与控制,E-mail:byming@njust.edu.cn。
引文格式:朱震曙,薄煜明,吴盘龙,等.基于QPSO-RBFNN的短期电力负荷预测模型[J].南京理工大学学报,2016,40(1):97-101.
投稿网址:http://zrxuebao.njust.edu.cn
DOI:10.14177/j.cnki.32-1397n.2016.40.01.016
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-02-29